From a bird's-eye view, surprisingly, the Toronto real estate market in 2023 closely resembled that of 2022. It was a year marked by discussions on interest rates, affordability, supply, volatility, and expectations. Furthermore, similar to 2022, we witnessed a robust spring, but the market decelerated in the second half, reaching a 20-year record low in sales activity. Download our annual retrospective analysis of 2023 for our three key insights from 2024 and what we predict for 2024.
➕ The numbers for the last month of 2023 are in! December was generally a quiet month for Toronto real estate, driven largely by seasonality and the continued high cost of borrowing. However, there were a couple of noteworthy insights in the monthly data.
Firstly, the townhouse segment experienced an unexpected increase of +25% in year-over-year price growth. This double-digit growth was largely attributed to a low average price for this segment in December 2022; however, unlike other market segments prices for the townhouse segment have been consistently trending up since September. On the flip side, the condo segment saw a decline of -4% in average price compared to December 2022. Secondly, the December market type moved back into a 'Sellers' market for the first time since April 2023, as total December sales accounted for 83% of December new listings. Note: Any percentage above 60% is in 'Sellers' market territory. Historically, the holiday break in the market shifts the market conditions to a Sellers market, but it will be interesting to see what the first few months of 2024 bring in terms of inventory returning to the Toronto real estate market. All that said, the more interesting insights will be found when looking at the full year. We'll be providing a comprehensive recap of 2023 in our upcoming annual year-in-review report! Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto? Average prices in December were as follows: ➕Detached $1,626,980 [0% vs. 2022] ➕Semi-detached $1,173,171 [+2% vs. 2022] ➕Townhouse $1,101,416 [+25% vs. 2022] ➕Condo $709,283 [-4% vs. 2022] Data presented is for City of Toronto Only. Source: TRREB. Lack of affordability and uncertainty of interest rate decisions remained barriers for many would-be home buyers in Toronto. As a result, sales edged slightly lower, vs. October 2022. Yet, robust population growth and a resilient regional economy generated enough competition to increase the overall selling prices by 3% when compared to last year.
Similar to last month, the dynamics varied within the housing market segments. Average selling prices for detached homes rose by an impressive 7%, semi-detached homes saw a 5% increase, while townhomes experienced a 1% uptick. In contrast, the condo market segment witnessed a 2% decline compared to October 2022. Looking ahead, there is a consensus that once borrowing rates start trending lower, demand will likely return to the market. Based on the most recent Bank of Canada announcement, this shift may occur around mid-2024. Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto? Average prices in October were as follows: ➕Detached $1,718,440 [+7% vs. 2022] ➕Semi-detached $1,278,347 [+5% vs. 2022] ➕Townhouse $1,017,094 [+1% vs. 2022] ➕Condo $729,160 [-2% vs. 2022] Data presented is for City of Toronto Only. Source: TRREB. ➕ ‘the numbers’ for September are in!
Despite persistent high borrowing costs, elevated inflation, a deceleration in economic growth, and uncertainty surrounding the decision-making process of the Bank of Canada, the Toronto housing market experienced a notable shift. In the face of a surge in property listings, the average price of a Toronto home surged by 5% in comparison to September 2022. Notably, the dynamics varied within the housing market itself. Average selling prices for detached homes rose by an impressive 9%, semi-detached homes saw a 6% increase, while townhomes experienced a 5% uptick. In contrast, the condo market segment witnessed a 5% decline compared to the previous year. With the influx of new listings, Toronto's Real Estate market has unmistakably transitioned into a Buyer's market. This shift suggests that prospective buyers may have already begun to, and are likely to continue, wield greater negotiating power, at least in the short term. Looking further into the future, a consensus exists that borrowing costs will remain elevated until mid-2024. At this juncture, we anticipate a substantial surge in housing demand driven by the prospect of lower borrowing rates and unprecedented population growth. Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto? Average prices in September were as follows: ➕Detached $1,724,007 [+9% vs. 2022] ➕Semi-detached $1,281,956 [+6% vs. 2022] ➕Townhouse $992,319 [+5% vs. 2022] ➕Condo $732,106 [-5% vs. 2022] Data presented is for City of Toronto Only. Source: TRREB. ➕ ‘the numbers’ for August are in!
August in the Toronto real estate market was marked by higher borrowing costs, ongoing uncertainty about the economy and the decision-making process of the Bank of Canada, and a limited supply of property listings. Total sales remained stable, while new listings continued to increase compared to August 2022. The more balanced market conditions observed this summer, in contrast to the tighter spring market, resulted in a slight decrease in overall selling prices [-3%] compared to last year's levels. However, there was inconsistency when analyzing different housing segments. Average sales prices for detached homes [-1%] and condos [-2%] experienced a slight decline, while townhomes saw average prices rise by [+6%], and semi-detached homes recorded double-digit growth [+10%] compared to August 2022. Looking ahead in the long term, there is a solid demand for housing. However, the Toronto real estate market may have to navigate some short-term volatility until both buyers and sellers can have greater confidence in the economic aspects of home ownership. Today's Bank of Canada rate announcement did offer a glimmer of hope that rate hikes may be approaching their conclusion. Looking to buy or sell a home in Toronto? Average prices in August were as follows: ➕Detached $1,635,145 [-1% vs. 2022] ➕Semi-detached $1,235,7230 [+10% vs. 2022] ➕Townhouse $971,090 [+6% vs. 2022] ➕Condo $724,549 [-2% vs. 2022] Data presented is for City of Toronto Only. Source: TRREB. |
LOIC DANISLoic Danis is a Toronto Real Estate Broker and Broker of Record/Owner of Sutton Group Old Mill Realty Inc. specializing in residential and investment real estate in Downtown Toronto, Etobicoke + West Toronto neighbourhoods including The Kingsway, Babypoint, Sunnylea, Swansea, Roncesvalles, High Park, Swansea, New Toronto, Mimico, Waterfront Communities, Yorkville, St. Lawrence Market, Bay Street Corridor and more! Categories
All
|